Yankees’ 2024 Playoff Projections: A Battle of Analysts and Odds

Baseball Reference Predicts Yankees to End Season in Last Place

The Yankees’ playoff chances in 2024 are not looking too promising, according to Baseball Reference. Their stat analysts project the team to have only a 2.7 percent chance of making the postseason and winning just 71.6 games. This is worse than both the Pirates and Ohtani-less Angels. However, Fangraphs predicts that the Yankees will win 88 games, which is the fourth-most in all of baseball.

On the other hand, BetRivers Sportsbook is much more optimistic about the Yankees’ chances. They project that the team will win 91.5 games and have the third-best odds to win the most games in baseball at +650. Additionally, they give the Yankees a 77.01 percent chance of making it to the playoffs, which is a significant difference from Baseball Reference’s projection.

The issue with Baseball Reference’s projections lies in their Simple Rating System, which only takes into account run differential and strength of schedule from previous year’s prior 100 games without considering injuries, players or variance but focuses solely on run differentials and changes in schedule difficulty. Despite this pessimistic outlook, there are several factors that could improve the Yankees’ chances for success in 2024 including their significant offseason acquisitions such as Juan Soto which should greatly improve their offense, as well as Aaron Judge staying healthy and playing a full season which could turn things around from their disappointing 2023 season

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